Should Public Figures Be Judged By Their Associations?

16 contracts (331¢)

Will the merger between WakeMed and Atrium Health be approved by June 30, 2026?

not sure why this is priced so low, seems like a no-brainer to me, but what do i know

Should Increased Regulation Be Applied to Crypto Prediction Markets?

Increased regulation could stifle innovation in the crypto prediction markets, which are already operating in a highly uncertain environment. For example, the SEC's actions against certain platforms have led to reduced participation and liquidity in markets, negatively impacting price discovery. A limited regulatory approach allows for flexibility and encourages new projects to develop without fear of overreach. While there are risks, a balanced approach often leads to inaction and loss of competitive edge.

Should Trump's Legal Challenges Shape the 2026 Elections?

Legal issues can't be ignored, they affect public trust and voter perception. Each case shows a different side of accountability, which voters care about.

Will the Senate Health Committee Chair be Roger Marshall by January 15, 2027?

is this even a market? marshall is barely a blip on the radar compared to some heavy hitters in the party. i get it's a long shot, but a 30% chance feels way too generous. anyone actually think he can hold this seat against some serious challengers?

Should Increased Regulation Be Applied to Crypto Prediction Markets?

A balanced approach can protect users while still fostering innovation. Too much regulation can stifle growth, but some oversight is necessary to prevent scams and ensure market integrity.

Will Khadija "Bunny" Shaw sign with Chelsea before July 1, 2026?

1,016 contracts (51¢)

Should Increased Regulation Be Applied to Crypto Prediction Markets?

Increased regulation on crypto prediction markets could stifle innovation and limit the potential for growth in this space. The crypto market is inherently a place for risk-taking and experimentation; imposing heavy regulations could deter new projects from emerging, which ultimately harms users who benefit from diversity and competition. Additionally, the decentralized nature of crypto makes it difficult to regulate effectively without overstepping, leading to a lack of clarity that could confuse participants. A free market model encourages responsible behavior by empowering users to make informed decisions and take responsibility for their investments.

Chicago Cubs vs Oakland Athletics (Jun 3)

1,484 contracts (54¢)

Will the South African National Space Agency successfully launch a satellite by December 31, 2026?

The South African National Space Agency has a decent track record, but considering the complexities of space launches, I think it's a riskier bet than the odds suggest. There's a lot that can go wrong with the technology or funding, and we should remember that their last attempt faced significant delays. I would set the probability lower, around 60 percent, given these factors.

Will the DAMPE satellite detect a new cosmic ray spectral break by June 30, 2026?

i don’t know much about cosmic rays but it feels like this is either way too optimistic or way too pessimistic, like, do we even have the tech for it yet?

Will the immunotherapy trial for treatment-resistant depression show significant positive results by June 30, 2026?

we're still betting on meds that barely work, it's like picking the least bad option at a diner.

Should Wearable Tech Balance Privacy with Accessibility Innovations?

12 contracts (257¢)

Should Trump's Legal Challenges Shape the 2026 Elections?

While Trump's legal challenges seem significant, they won't really shape the 2026 elections. Voters are often more concerned with issues directly affecting their lives, like the economy and education, rather than legal matters that may or may not lead to a conviction. Moreover, Trump's base remains loyal despite his controversies; these legal issues are becoming normalized in the political discourse. Ultimately, unless there's a major legal breakthrough that changes perceptions, these challenges are unlikely to sway the average voter significantly.

Will researchers publicly demonstrate an organic solar cell using the ultrafast charge transfer mechanism by December 31, 2026?

842 contracts (53¢)

Will Meta lay off 20% or more of its workforce by December 31, 2026?

It seems pretty likely that Meta will have to make some cuts, especially given the current financial climate and their ongoing challenges. However, I'm not sure 20% is the right benchmark; that feels a bit overblown when you consider how they’ve been trying to adapt. The market might be pricing this in too aggressively.

Will new evidence of additional whole genome duplication events in flowering plants be confirmed by June 30, 2026?

431 contracts (47¢)

Should Public Figures Distance Themselves from Controversial Allies?

7 contracts (186¢)

Will the US lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

I doubt the US will lift the blockade by that date; the geopolitical tension in that region is high, and there's a lot at stake. Unless there are significant diplomatic breakthroughs, I can’t see this changing anytime soon.