Will Iran and Oman finalize a deal on the Strait of Hormuz by November 1, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if an official international agreement or pact is reached at the COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, specifically focusing on land restoration, desertification, or drought management, and is publicly announced by August 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if, by September 30, 2026, there is a public announcement from the United Nations or relevant education summit officials confirming an increase in funding for education systems as a result of the UN Transforming Education Summit + 4. Otherwise, it resolves to No.

Will a significant diplomatic agreement be announced between Russia and North Korea by September 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if an official and significant diplomatic agreement between Russia and North Korea is publicly announced by either or both countries before September 15, 2026. 'Significant' is defined as any agreement related to trade, military, or an equivalent substantive issue.

This market resolves to Yes if the Strait of Bab el Mandeb continues to be blocked by military forces or other disruptions related to the ongoing conflict beyond September 30, 2026. Verification will be based on credible news reports confirming whether the strait remains closed to commercial shipping.

Will Andrew and Tristan Tate face formal charges in the U.S. by August 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Andrew and/or Tristan Tate are formally charged with criminal offenses in the United States by August 15, 2026, as confirmed by credible governmental or law enforcement statements (e.g., Department of Justice press releases). If no formal charges are announced by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if public and credible reports confirm that commercial shipping traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026. Public confirmation can come from governments, international maritime organizations, or major verified news outlets. If no such reports are available by this date, the market resolves to No.