Markets

This market resolves to Yes if definitive data or a major international climate authority confirms that global carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline before January 1, 2029. The data must be widely recognized and reported in respected climate science publications or by organizations like the United Nations or the International Energy Agency.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Union's IRIS² secure satellite communication system becomes operational before January 1, 2029. This would be confirmed by a public announcement from the European Union or relevant space authorities. The original timeline for the system's launch was set for 2030, and any earlier launch would indicate an acceleration in the timeline.

This market resolves to Yes if Team GB wins a gold medal in men's curling at the 2030 Winter Olympics. If Team GB does not win the gold medal by the end of the 2030 Winter Olympics, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the average summer temperature in Greenland exceeds 10°C for June through August, as recorded by the Danish Meteorological Institute, by the end of 2030.

This market resolves to Yes if, according to official reports from the International Olympic Committee or similar authoritative bodies, more than 75% of the potential Winter Olympics host locations identified in a pre-2030 study require machine-made snow to meet the conditions for holding the Games by December 31, 2030.

This market resolves to Yes if there are credible reports or official data showing that electricity demand from AI-optimized data centers has quadrupled by the year 2030 compared to 2026 levels.

Will the U.S. Census Bureau include a citizenship question in the official 2030 Census?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Census Bureau officially adopts a citizenship question in the 2030 Census enumeration form. Confirmation must come from an official announcement or documentation from the Bureau by the resolution date.

This market resolves to Yes if, according to official reports or announcements from Conagra or local authorities, at least 100 jobs are created as part of Conagra's $220 million expansion of its Fayetteville manufacturing site by December 31, 2030. The market will resolve to No if fewer than 100 jobs are announced or created by this date.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Kansas City Chiefs' new stadium hosts a Super Bowl by December 31, 2035. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The decision will be based on official announcements by the NFL.

This market resolves to Yes if a verifiable source confirms the successful establishment and operational status of a nuclear power station on the Moon by the end of 2036. The source must be from a reputable space agency such as NASA or an equivalent international organization.