Markets

This market resolves to Yes if a swarm of drones is publicly confirmed by a recognized space agency or private space exploration company to have been deployed to explore a planetary body (such as a planet, moon, or asteroid) in our solar system by December 31, 2027. The confirmation must come from official sources, such as a press release or statement.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a new therapy for pancreatic cancer, specifically one targeting the mutated gene responsible for 90% of cases, by December 31, 2027. The therapy must be based on the recent breakthrough described in news where mice trials showed significant tumor regression without side effects.

This market resolves to Yes if Arm Holdings' new in-house AI chip generates at least $15 billion in revenue annually by December 31, 2027, as verified by the company's official financial statements or credible third-party financial analysis.

This market resolves to Yes if Lands' End, as part of its joint venture with WHP Global, reports total licensing revenues exceeding $500 million by December 31, 2027. The resolution will be based on official financial statements released by Lands' End or WHP Global.

Will the next-gen Xbox console be officially announced by AMD or Microsoft by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement about the next-gen Xbox console is made by either AMD or Microsoft by December 31, 2027. The announcement must be confirmed through a press release, official company statement, or coverage by a credible media source.

Will Huawei's new AI chip capture over 25% of NVIDIA's China market share by December 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Huawei's new AI chip is reported by a reputable source to capture over 25% of NVIDIA's AI chip market share in China by December 31, 2027. The determination will be based on market analysis reports from tech industry watchers such as IDC, Gartner, or similar sources.

Will Japan initiate its first commercial ocean seabed mining operation by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Japan officially begins its first commercial operation to mine the ocean seabed for minerals by December 31, 2027. The resolution will be based on verifiable reports from credible news sources confirming the commencement of commercial mining activities on or before this date.

This market resolves to Yes if a scientific demonstration of a practical quantum technology application using entanglement created by sunlight is publicly announced by December 31, 2027. Practical applications may include quantum communication or computing tasks. The announcement must come from a credible scientific organization or journal.

This market resolves to Yes if a recognized regulatory body or international healthcare organization formally establishes a comprehensive standard for the use of AI in patient-facing clinical applications within behavioral health settings by December 31, 2027. Such a standard must be publicly announced and widely accepted within the healthcare industry.

Will the enhanced Bank of America Stadium host the NFL Draft or a Super Bowl by 2028?

This market resolves to Yes if the enhanced Bank of America Stadium hosts either the NFL Draft or a Super Bowl prior to January 1, 2028. The resolution will be based on official announcements or events occurring by that date.

This market resolves to Yes if official industry reports confirm that PC gaming revenue exceeds console gaming revenue by December 31, 2027. This can be verified through reports from reputable industry analysts and financial data published by entities such as Newzoo, Deloitte, or PricewaterhouseCoopers.

This market resolves to Yes if an official report states that the global average temperature has reached or exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by December 31, 2027. This is based on data from leading climate monitoring organizations such as NASA, NOAA, or the IPCC.

This market resolves to Yes if Codelco's officially reported copper production for 2027 reaches or exceeds 1.37 million tons, as confirmed by an official statement or report from Codelco.

This market resolves to Yes if Conagra successfully completes the $220 million expansion of its Fayetteville Manufacturing Site by March 31, 2028. Completion will be confirmed if Conagra officially announces the completion of the site expansion by this date. The expansion is expected to create more than 100 jobs over the next five years.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Getty Center in Los Angeles reopens to the public by May 1, 2028, as per official announcements. The Getty Center has planned renovations, aiming to reopen ahead of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

This market resolves to Yes if Major League Baseball (MLB) players participate in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, despite potential disruptions from a work stoppage in 2027 as discussed by the new union head. The market will resolve on the opening day of the 2028 Olympics based on official participation announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts officially reopens following its two-year reconstruction project by or before July 31, 2028. Verification will be based on an official announcement or news report confirming the reopening.

This market resolves to Yes if the National Science Foundation announces the continuation or expansion of their new Ph.D. model program by August 1, 2028, indicating it has met or exceeded its objectives outlined in the pilot phase.

This market resolves to Yes if a scientific mission officially reports the successful growth of chickpeas on the lunar surface under controlled experimental conditions by December 31, 2028. The results must be publicly announced by a credible space agency or scientific organization.

This market resolves to Yes if, by the end of 2028, a drug developed using an ultrafast quantum chemistry engine, like EXESS, receives FDA approval. The development must be significantly attributed to this technology, as noted in reputable scientific or industry publications.

This market resolves to Yes if the African Development Bank's Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) achieves $2.5 billion in financing by December 31, 2028. Confirmation will be based on official announcements or financial reports from the African Development Bank or verified news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if any national Olympic committee formally announces its withdrawal from the 2030 Winter Olympics, explicitly citing sportswashing concerns, by December 31, 2028. Official announcements must be verified by reputable sources such as major news outlets or the involved committee's official communications. If no such announcement is made by the deadline, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if definitive data or a major international climate authority confirms that global carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline before January 1, 2029. The data must be widely recognized and reported in respected climate science publications or by organizations like the United Nations or the International Energy Agency.

This market resolves to Yes if scientific endeavors successfully grow and harvest chickpeas on the Moon using lunar soil simulant by December 31, 2028. Confirmation must come from an official report or statement by a recognized space agency or scientific body.