Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if a lawsuit publicly supported by or filed on behalf of Donald Trump or his administration officials is filed by August 31, 2026, to challenge the outcome of any 2024 U.S. Senate race. Official documentation or a direct statement from Trump's camp will be required for confirmation. The market resolves to No if no such lawsuit is filed by this date.
This market resolves to Yes if an official statement from a credible source (e.g., Chinese officials, U.S. Space Force, or a leading scientific organization) identifies the object released by the Shenlong space plane on or before August 31, 2026. The identification must include the object's purpose, function, or contents. Speculative or unverified claims will not count as resolution criteria.
This market resolves to Yes if the National Institutes of Health (NIH) officially announces the reinstatement of significant funding (at least $1 billion) for clinical trials by August 31, 2026. Public announcements from the NIH or U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will be used to determine the outcome.
Will Microsoft face new government investigations related to tax haven practices by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if any new formal government investigation (e.g., from the U.S. Department of Justice, IRS, or similar international governmental agencies) into Microsoft's tax strategies or tax haven usage is publicly announced on or before August 31, 2026. Investigations already disclosed or ongoing prior to July 6, 2026, do not count toward this market's resolution. Reliable announcements must be reported by major financial or tech news outlets.
This market resolves to Yes if Bitdeer reports on or before August 31, 2026, that it held zero Bitcoin in its treasury for the entirety of August 2026. The resolution will be based on public statements, official company reports, or verified disclosures from Bitdeer. If no such data is made available by the close date, the market will resolve to No.
This market resolves to Yes if the EU announces any additional regulatory penalties or fines imposed on Apple under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an EU official source (e.g., European Commission press release or official court ruling) and explicitly relate to the DMA.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's super PAC, publicly announces or files Federal Election Commission (FEC) documentation revealing a major spending plan in support of GOP candidates for the upcoming fall elections. A 'major spending plan' is defined as a commitment of at least $50 million, either announced publicly or documented in FEC filings. If no such disclosure is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if a publicly disclosed cryptographic breach occurs in the United States by August 31, 2026, due to a quantum-computing-related vulnerability as outlined in initiatives like EO 14412. The breach must be reported by a reputable news source or an official government announcement. Breaches unrelated to quantum vulnerabilities will not count toward resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if the WHO's Europe Regional Office publicly announces the finalization and publication of its new digital health strategy by August 31, 2026. The resolution will be based on official and verifiable announcements from the WHO Regional Office for Europe or relevant trusted media sources. If no announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if any reputable scientific organization or peer-reviewed journal confirms, by August 31, 2026, that the mysterious spectral signal observed by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on Pluto or Titan corresponds to a new molecule not previously identified elsewhere in the solar system. Confirmation must be reported and publicly available in credible scientific news outlets or journal publications.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces or confirms, through an official communication, press release, or peer-reviewed study, that the recently discovered honeycomb-like patterns on Mars are of biological origin (e.g., linked to past microbial or organic life) by August 31, 2026. If no such confirmation is made or if NASA confirms the patterns are of non-biological origin by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if at least one new cancer research paper, flagged by the AI system as potentially fraudulent, is officially retracted by a credible journal or institution by August 31, 2026. The decision must be publicly confirmed by a trusted entity such as the journal involved, the researchers, or a prominent institution. Fraudulent 'paper mill' output refers to suspected fabricated or manipulated research identified in the referenced ScienceDaily article.
This market resolves to Yes if Netflix publicly announces (via official press release, blog post, or similar) that the AI tools developed by InterPositive, the AI startup acquired by Netflix, will be used in the creation of a new original series by August 31, 2026. Announcements about films, documentaries, or non-original content will not count. The market resolves based on publicly available information.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a verified agency/research group announces official evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars by August 31, 2026. Such evidence may include, but is not limited to, confirmation of fossilized microbes or other definitive biosignatures discovered by the Perseverance rover or any other Mars missions. The announcement must come via an official press release, peer-reviewed journal, or government briefing.
This market resolves to Yes if Medicare officially announces coverage for the breast cancer test Oncotype DX by August 31, 2026. Oncotype DX is a trusted diagnostic test used by cancer specialists to guide treatment decisions. The market will resolve based on an official announcement from Medicare or related federal agencies confirming the coverage policy by the specified date.
This market resolves to Yes if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) publicly announces plans for a new manufacturing facility explicitly focused on AI chip production (including GPUs, AI accelerators, or related components) on or before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official TSMC communication channel, such as a press release, investor call, or SEC filing, and be reported by reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, WSJ). Announcements of general expansions unrelated to AI will not count.
This market resolves to Yes if the Vera C. Rubin Observatory publicly announces the official implementation of the CIGaRS framework for analyzing Type Ia supernova data by August 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official press releases or publications from the observatory or the Institute of Cosmos Sciences of the University of Barcelona (ICCUB).
This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed paper is published in a top-tier journal (e.g., *Nature*, *Science*, *Astrophysical Journal*) with significant contributions from the RHINE AI model, as cited in the study, by August 31, 2026. The research must pertain to neutron star mergers or the synthesis of heavy elements.
This market resolves to Yes if Amazon publicly announces the groundbreaking of its Dog's Head project in Southeast Austin by August 31, 2026. Official statements, press releases, or reputable media coverage will be used to determine the outcome. If no such announcement occurs by the resolution date, this market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if any recognized scientific observatory reports a verified observation of a naked singularity before or on August 31, 2026. The observation must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or announced by a major scientific organization.
This market resolves to Yes if Mohamed Salah officially transfers to any club within the Saudi Arabian Professional League by the start of the 2026/27 football season. All official announcements from the Saudi Arabian Professional League or the involved football clubs will be considered for verification. The market closes prior to the start of the new season.
This market resolves to Yes if Mason Mount is officially transferred to a football club outside the English Premier League by the end of the 2026 summer transfer window, which is typically on September 1st, 2026. Official announcements by the clubs involved will be used as the source for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement or release indicates that Taylor Swift collaborates on a new song with Randy Newman by September 1, 2026. Collaborations include any new track where both artists contribute either writing, singing, or producing vocals/instruments.
This market resolves to Yes if the US FDA grants approval for a COVID booster vaccine specifically targeting cardiovascular complications associated with the virus by September 2026. The announcement of approval must be publicly available and verifiable through official US FDA communication channels.