Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) makes an official recommendation, announcement, or guideline by August 31, 2026, advocating for the reclassification of Grade Group 1 prostate cancer (the earliest and lowest-risk form of the disease) as a precancerous condition. Any such confirmation must be made publicly on the CDC's website, press releases, or official communications. If no such announcement is made by August 31, 2026, this market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if credible third-party reports (e.g., from research firms like Gartner, IDC, or similar sources) confirm that China's GLM-5.2 AI model is listed among the top 5 AI models (based on market share or adoption in commercial applications) by August 31, 2026. The ranking must be explicitly tied to commercial industry usage, as determined by such reports, and not speculative or preliminary data. Resolution criteria require publication of proper rankings or analyses from reliable sources.
This market resolves to Yes if Microsoft officially announces, via press release, earnings call, or a similar credible public communication, that it plans to replace both ChatGPT and Claude with China's Kimi K3 for AI-related or operational purposes by August 31, 2026. Any unofficial statements, leaks, or rumors will not determine resolution. The resolution source must be verifiable.
This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement of any collaboration (e.g., music, film, or public project) involving Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau is made by August 31, 2026. The announcement must be made by a credible source (e.g., official social media accounts, press releases, or major news outlets). For clarity, a TikTok video without explicit confirmation of a collaboration does NOT count.
This market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin's price, as reported by Coindesk or CoinMarketCap, reaches or surpasses $69,000 at any time before the market closes on August 31, 2026. The current all-time high for Bitcoin is $68,789 (achieved in November 2021). This question is based on renewed market discussion and speculative sentiment regarding Bitcoin's potential recovery and new highs, as mentioned in recent financial news.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA's Artemis II mission confirms the presence of water ice on the Moon by using its lunar reconnaissance equipment, with official confirmation by NASA through their website or press release by August 31, 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if the WHO's Europe Regional Office publicly announces the finalization and publication of its new digital health strategy by August 31, 2026. The resolution will be based on official and verifiable announcements from the WHO Regional Office for Europe or relevant trusted media sources. If no announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if it is confirmed that the National Health Service (NHS) has begun pilot studies implementing the non-invasive tests for endometriosis recommended by NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) by August 31, 2026. Public confirmation may come from NHS press releases, reputable UK health media outlets, or official NICE/NHS communications.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, a publicly verifiable announcement is made that ChatGPT or another generative AI tool officially replaces a major Wall Street firm analyst role (e.g., research analyst or similar position) as a core component of their service delivery. Public announcements must come from the firm itself or credible financial/technology media outlets. Speculative opinion pieces or unverified reports will not count for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if Chinese AI firm DeepSeek announces a new product or service explicitly targeting U.S. enterprise customers by August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official DeepSeek source, such as a press release, corporate blog post, or verified announcement via their official channels. General statements about global product availability without a specific focus on U.S. enterprises will not qualify.
This market resolves to Yes if an official statement from a credible source (e.g., Chinese officials, U.S. Space Force, or a leading scientific organization) identifies the object released by the Shenlong space plane on or before August 31, 2026. The identification must include the object's purpose, function, or contents. Speculative or unverified claims will not count as resolution criteria.
This market resolves to Yes if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) publicly announces plans for a new manufacturing facility explicitly focused on AI chip production (including GPUs, AI accelerators, or related components) on or before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official TSMC communication channel, such as a press release, investor call, or SEC filing, and be reported by reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, WSJ). Announcements of general expansions unrelated to AI will not count.
This market resolves to Yes if the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) officially reports by August 31, 2026, that the cause of the Kenmore Air seaplane crash near Sucia Island was related to weather conditions. The outcome will be determined based on an official statement or report released publicly by the NTSB.
This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially approves a new drug as part of its recently launched initiative to boost domestic clinical trials and speed new drug development by August 31, 2026. Approval must be confirmed through an official FDA announcement.
This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announces formal approval of the first regenerative injection therapy for osteo-arthritis, as described in recent research news, by August 31, 2026. Any official FDA announcement, press release, or public database update confirming approval will determine the outcome. If no such approval is granted by the close date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's super PAC, publicly announces or files Federal Election Commission (FEC) documentation revealing a major spending plan in support of GOP candidates for the upcoming fall elections. A 'major spending plan' is defined as a commitment of at least $50 million, either announced publicly or documented in FEC filings. If no such disclosure is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if an official international agreement or pact is reached at the COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, specifically focusing on land restoration, desertification, or drought management, and is publicly announced by August 31, 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA confirms, through public announcements or test reports, that the X-59 aircraft successfully completes a supersonic test flight without generating a loud sonic boom by August 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from NASA or a credible aerospace source. If no such flight occurs by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) successfully determines the neutrino mass ordering by August 31, 2026. Determination would typically be announced through a published scientific paper or official statement from the JUNO Collaboration or the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed paper published before or by August 31, 2026, provides direct evidence from James Webb Space Telescope observations that star-driven winds can significantly quench galaxy formation. The paper must be widely acknowledged in reputable scientific communities or press as providing such evidence.
This market resolves to Yes if Bitdeer reports on or before August 31, 2026, that it held zero Bitcoin in its treasury for the entirety of August 2026. The resolution will be based on public statements, official company reports, or verified disclosures from Bitdeer. If no such data is made available by the close date, the market will resolve to No.
This market resolves to Yes if the Israeli Health Ministry officially proposes significant new legislative measures targeting smoking and e-cigarette use in Israel by August 31, 2026. 'Significant' refers to measures directly impacting legal smoking age, banning specific products, or introducing substantial regulations. The proposal must be publicly announced by the Health Ministry.
This market resolves to Yes if the EU announces any additional regulatory penalties or fines imposed on Apple under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an EU official source (e.g., European Commission press release or official court ruling) and explicitly relate to the DMA.
This market resolves to Yes if Israel's Health Ministry officially announces by August 31, 2026, that all previous licensing restrictions on imaging technicians trained in the West Bank are fully lifted, allowing them to practice without additional barriers. The market will resolve to No if no such announcement is made by that date.