Markets

This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump or a Trump-affiliated organization officially announces the launch of a new cryptocurrency token on or before September 30, 2026. To qualify, the announcement must be made through an official Trump Organization communication channel (e.g., press release, social media, or official website) or in a publicly available financial disclosure. The token must be distinct from any pre-existing tokens associated with Trump or his businesses, such as $TRUMP. External independent reporting is not sufficient unless corroborated by official Trump Organization communication.

Will Amazon reduce warehouse operational labor hours by at least 10% due to the new efficiency drive by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if official reports or credible news sources confirm that Amazon has achieved a reduction of at least 10% in operational labor hours in its robotics-enabled warehouses due to the new efficiency drive focused on human movement optimization by September 30, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate cut any time before or during Q3 2026. The official announcement must be reported by a credible financial news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if ESPN publicly announces that Matt Miller has resumed his on-air analyst role by September 30, 2026. If no such announcement is made by then, this market resolves to No. The question stems from Miller's indefinite leave due to health and financial investigation issues.

Will the restoration of the Mastodonsaurus skeleton in Warsaw be completed by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the restoration of the Mastodonsaurus skeleton at the Copernicus Science Center in Warsaw, Poland, is officially declared complete by September 30, 2026. Verification will be based on announcements or reports from the Copernicus Science Center, the Polish Academy of Sciences, or other reliable media outlets. This market resolves to No if the restoration is not completed by this date.

Will a U.S. federal cryptocurrency market structure bill be passed by September 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a federal cryptocurrency market structure bill is passed by both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives and signed into law by the President by September 30, 2026. The bill must specifically address the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market.

This market resolves to Yes if the Clarity Act, a significant piece of legislation aimed at establishing federal rules for digital assets, is signed into law by September 30, 2026. The Clarity Act must be officially enacted as law by this date, and confirmation must be verifiable through reliable sources such as government publications or major news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, is officially granted a full European banking license by September 30, 2026. Confirmation must be reported by an official regulatory entity, Kraken itself, or credible global news outlets. If no such confirmation is available by the close date, the market resolves to No.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule to keep the Boulder climate case in state court by September 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the climate change-related lawsuit by the city of Boulder against Exxon Mobil and Suncore Energy remains in state court by September 2026. The decision will determine if climate lawsuits like Boulder's will continue in state courts or be moved to federal courts.

This market resolves to Yes if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5% at any point before or on September 30, 2026. The outcome will be determined using publicly available financial data from credible sources like the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

This market resolves to Yes if Expensify publicly announces that its new Consolidated Travel Billing service has reached at least 50,000 active users by September 30, 2026. Active users are defined as companies actively using the service for business travel payments. Any official press release, investor call, or similar source confirming the milestone will determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if a new significant archaeological discovery, distinct from the currently known fan-shaped structure, is publicly reported to have been found beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet by the resolution date. The discovery must be notable enough to be covered by reputable scientific news outlets.

Will Todd Blanche remain U.S. Attorney General by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Todd Blanche remains in the position of U.S. Attorney General as of September 30, 2026. Given recent movements in the Department of Justice following Pam Bondi’s ouster and replacement by Todd Blanche, this market focuses on the stability of Blanche’s appointment amid ongoing political dynamics.

This market resolves to Yes if, by September 30, 2026, there is a public announcement from the United Nations or relevant education summit officials confirming an increase in funding for education systems as a result of the UN Transforming Education Summit + 4. Otherwise, it resolves to No.

Will SpaceX stock recover to its pre-July 2026 high by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if SpaceX's stock price reaches or exceeds its highest price in July 2026 at any point before the end of the day on September 30, 2026. The resolution will be based on publicly available trading data.

This market resolves to Yes if the Strait of Bab el Mandeb continues to be blocked by military forces or other disruptions related to the ongoing conflict beyond September 30, 2026. Verification will be based on credible news reports confirming whether the strait remains closed to commercial shipping.

This market resolves to Yes if a significant public policy change (federal or state law) aimed at protecting bees and addressing factors such as pesticide use or habitat destruction is enacted in the United States by September 30, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the New Jersey police officially announce the arrest of the suspects involved in the Woodbridge Jewelry Store robbery by September 30, 2026. If no official arrest is announced by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if official government sources or reliable international news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC) confirm that Péter Magyar's administration has formally introduced a bill to restructure Hungary's governance by replacing the presidency with an alternative system (e.g., parliamentary-only or a ceremonial head of state) on or before September 30, 2026. If no such bill is confirmed by this date, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Deckers announces or confirms, through a press release or official financial statement, that its Hoka brand is present in over 50% more athletic specialty stores in the United States by the end of Q3 2026 compared to its distribution as of Q1 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the NFL formally approves the Khosla family's purchase of the Seattle Seahawks by September 30, 2026. The resolution will rely on an official announcement from the NFL or the Seattle Seahawks confirming the approval. If there is no confirmation by the specified date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the Endocrine Society publicly announces, by September 2026, that hormone therapy is recommended over non-hormonal treatments (including fezolinetant) for menopause based on official guidelines or recommendations. The announcement must clearly state preference and be available on the Endocrine Society's official communication channels.

Will the percentage of uninsured patients in U.S. hospitals exceed 25% by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the average percentage of uninsured patients reported by major U.S. hospitals exceeds 25% by the end of Q3 2026, as indicated in their publicly available earnings reports or official statements.