Markets

This market resolves to Yes if Oscar Health's stock price is greater than $12 at market close on December 31, 2026. Oscar Health has been making significant strides in healthcare innovation despite financial losses, impacting its stock performance. This market evaluates the ability of Oscar Health to maintain its stock price amid ongoing challenges and opportunities in the healthcare sector.

This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement confirms a premier soccer game (featuring national or international teams) is scheduled to be held at Lambeau Field by December 31, 2026. The game must be publicly confirmed on an official team or event organizer's website or social media account.

This market resolves to Yes if Mutuum Finance (MUTM) achieves its Phase 10 pricing tier by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official updates from Mutuum Finance and credible news sources detailing the advancement to Phase 10. Any confirmed achievement of this tier within the specified timeframe will result in a Yes resolution.

Will Bitcoin's price exceed $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) closes above $80,000 on any major cryptocurrency exchange on December 31, 2026. The closing price will be determined based on the last recorded price on Coinbase or Binance at 23:59 UTC on that date.

Will Bitcoin's market capitalization exceed $1.5 trillion by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, according to CoinMarketCap or a comparable cryptocurrency market data provider, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin exceeds $1.5 trillion at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Market data will be verified by multiple reputable sources for accuracy.

Will Bitcoin reach or exceed $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on any major cryptocurrency exchange at any time before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on data from Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA's PACE Satellite identifies a new substantial source of nitrogen dioxide pollution in a major city (population over 1 million) not currently recognized as a pollution hotspot, by December 31, 2026. The finding must be confirmed through NASA's official reports or a peer-reviewed scientific publication acknowledging PACE's data.

This market resolves to Yes if Exxaro Resources Ltd's shareholding in Jupiter Mines Ltd exceeds 20% on or before December 31, 2026, according to official regulatory filings or a credible public announcement. Any acquisition making their share 20.01% or more will be considered an increase. If no such increase is verified by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Novartis publicly announces the development of at least one therapeutic antibody using Chai Discovery's AI platform (e.g., Chai-3 model) by December 31, 2026. The announcement must come through official company press releases, news articles, or public disclosures. If no such announcement is made by the resolution date, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Insight Health has publicly announced the successful scaling of its clinical AI agents by the end of 2026. Evidence can include official press releases, company announcements, or credible news reports confirming the expansion and integration of these AI tools into healthcare systems as intended with their recent $11M funding raise.

This market resolves to Yes if the acquisition of ATG Entertainment by MARI receives all necessary regulatory approvals by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Detroit Lions officially qualify for the NFL playoffs in the 2026 season. Otherwise, it resolves to "No".

Will Disney's collaboration with TikTok creators include a full-length animated short by December 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a full-length animated short (more than 10 minutes) produced through Disney's collaboration with TikTok creators is publicly released by December 31, 2026. If no such short is released by that date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the newly developed pancreatic cancer therapy, which showed long-lasting tumor regression in mice, advances to human clinical trials by December 31, 2026. Evidence of advancement is considered from reputable sources such as official announcements from involved research institutions or clinical trial registries.

Will the microwave frying technique be commercially adopted for mass-produced french fries by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a major fast-food chain or frozen french fry manufacturer publicly confirms the use of the microwave frying technique described by Pawan Singh Takhar and team for mass-producing french fries. Confirmation must be reported by a credible news source.

This market resolves to Yes if any official regulatory body approves the AI-discovered natural molecule for weight loss treatment by December 31, 2026. This molecule is designed to mimic Ozempic-like effects without the side effects, as reported in recent research from Stanford scientists.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a major pharmaceutical company publicly announces the development of a new drug that involved the use of quantum chemistry software such as EXESS in its design or discovery. Confirmation must come from a press release or an equivalent formal announcement from the company.

This market resolves to Yes if there is official confirmation of a human clinical trial using genetically modified hookworms to deliver medications or antibodies inside the human body by the end of 2026.

Will the U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs propose new regulations for prediction markets by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, after the roundtable discussion on August 4, 2026, proposes any new regulations specifically targeting prediction markets by the end of 2026. A proposal is considered valid if it is documented in the public congressional records.

Will the U.S. repeal the future Medicaid spending cuts by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Congress passes legislation to repeal the future Medicaid spending cuts as outlined in recent debates, by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if any S&P 500 company receives an 'A' rating in the Climate Action category from the CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project) for the first time in its history, by December 31, 2026. Previously rated companies achieving 'A' ratings again will not count towards this outcome. Verification will be based on official announcements from CDP.

This market resolves to Yes if Megan Rapinoe makes a public statement supporting the International Olympic Committee's new policy intended to protect women's sports, prior to 31st December 2026. This includes any public statement in interviews, official publications, or on her verified social media accounts.

Will Google's Gemini 3 surpass GPT-4 in benchmark tests by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Google's Gemini 3 is officially shown to outperform OpenAI's GPT-4 in recognized AI benchmark tests (such as the Stanford Question Answering Dataset or MMLU) by December 31, 2026. The assessment must be based on results published in peer-reviewed journals or credible industry publications.

This market resolves to Yes if Dow successfully completes the announced plan to cut approximately 4,500 jobs by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from Dow or credible reports confirming the completion of the job cuts.