Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if Apple issues an official recall of the second-generation Apple AirTag before January 1, 2027. A recall is defined as an official action by Apple to return sold units of the new AirTag due to defects or other issues. This does not include individual returns or updates, but an official public recall affecting multiple devices.
This market resolves to Yes if IBM, INFQ, or QBTS publicly demonstrates a quantum computer that is deemed commercially relevant by December 31, 2026, as per Trump's executive orders aiming for such a technological achievement by 2028. The determination of 'commercially relevant' will be based on a consensus of leading tech media reports and expert opinions.
This market resolves to Yes if the White House succeeds in implementing a policy or regulation that legally restricts institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes anywhere in the United States by December 31, 2026. Official confirmation of the policy enactment through legal or governmental channels is required for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if Apple does not undergo significant layoffs or major workforce reductions in 2026, amidst AI-driven industry restructuring. Publicly available reports or official statements will be used to determine the outcome.
This market resolves to Yes if official and credible sources, such as the China National Space Administration (CNSA), confirm that Tianwen-2 has successfully collected samples from the quasi-moon Kamo'oalewa by December 31, 2026. If no success or failure is confirmed by that date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if Them, under the new ownership of Equalpride, reports or is verified by a reliable source to have surpassed 2 million monthly unique visitors by December 31, 2026. Verification can come from industry analytics reports, a public statement from Equalpride, or coverage by accredited media outlets.
This market resolves to Yes if the price of XRP reaches or exceeds $10 on any reputable crypto exchange by December 31, 2026. The final price will be considered on a closing basis at the end of the day in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Greenpeace files for bankruptcy in the United States by December 31, 2026, as a result of the $345 million verdict against them in the Dakota Access Pipeline case. Public court records or official statements from Greenpeace or US bankruptcy courts will be used to determine the outcome.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces the integration of space-based observations of vegetation and soil moisture into their air quality forecast models for agricultural regions by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be from an official NASA source and specify the integration into forecast models.
This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling by December 31, 2026, that upholds the legality of a federal ban on assault weapons. The decision must explicitly address a federal assault weapons ban in place and conclude that it is constitutional. If no such ruling is issued, or if the Court rules against the ban's constitutionality, the market resolves to No. Any related rulings must be publicly available and verifiable through official Supreme Court records.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Vladimir Putin officially announces his resignation or a formal transfer of presidential power before or on December 31, 2026. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from the Kremlin or verifiable reporting from credible news sources such as Reuters, AP, or BBC. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to 'No.'
This market resolves to Yes if Pepeto announces reaching or exceeding $20 million in presale capital by December 31, 2026. Confirmation should come from an official announcement by Pepeto or a credible financial news source.
This market resolves to Yes if the New York State legislature passes a law enabling non-citizens to vote in municipal elections across the state of New York by December 31, 2026. The resolution will be determined based on official legislative records or credible news reports confirming the passage of such a bill.
This market resolves to Yes if Tesla officially announces a merger, acquisition, or any formal consolidation with SpaceX and xAI by December 31, 2026. The confirmation must come from an official press release or a regulatory filing by any of the involved companies. Partial or informal announcements will not qualify.
This market resolves to Yes if a formal charge against Jack Lang, France’s former Culture Minister, is filed in connection with the Epstein-linked tax fraud investigation by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on credible public records or official announcements confirming such charges.
This market resolves to Yes if PayPal publicly announces that it has agreed to a formal takeover or acquisition deal with another company by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made on PayPal's official website, press release, or a major financial news outlet.
This market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly announces her candidacy for the 2028 presidential election by the end of 2026. Announcements through credible news sources or official public statements will be accepted as valid. The market will resolve to No if no such announcement is made by the resolution date.
This market resolves to Yes if a new federal law specifically addressing climate change is signed into law by the President of the United States by the end of 2026. The law must explicitly target the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or implement measures to combat climate change and cannot simply be an amendment to existing legislation. Reports from reputable sources such as the U.S. Congress or recognized news outlets will be used for verification.
This market resolves to Yes if Murphy USA is listed among the Top 3 convenience-store chains by store count in CSP's 2026 annual ranking. The outcome will be determined based on Roswell CSP Daily News's official report on the ranking, projected to be published by the end of 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if the US Senate successfully passes a bill that permits stablecoins to offer rewards by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official Senate records and public announcements.
This market resolves to Yes if Grosvenor's Vista consultancy publicly announces the inclusion of autonomous vehicle consulting services by December 31, 2026. The determination will be based on official press releases, announcements on Grosvenor's website, or verified news sources.
This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least 10 major universities publicly announce and implement a new economics curriculum influenced by the Rethinking Economics movement, incorporating more pluralistic and ethically conscientious frameworks as described in recent articles. Confirmation will be based on verifiable announcements from the universities or media coverage.
This market resolves to Yes if the Federation of American Scientists' new initiative on climate leads to a recognized climate-specific program or policy that is publicly endorsed and implemented by at least three different U.S. state governments by December 31, 2026. Official press releases or announcements from the states or the Federation of American Scientists will be used for verification.
This market resolves to Yes if official publicly released versions of the Epstein Files contain over one million mentions of Donald Trump's name as verified by credible sources by December 31, 2026.