Markets

This market resolves to Yes if, by the end of December 31, 2026, researchers publicly demonstrate an operational organic solar cell utilizing the newly observed ultrafast charge transfer mechanism involving electron 'catapults' in molecular interfaces, as described in the 2026 study on advanced solar materials.

Will Apple's 'citrus' MacBook Neo become a top 5 bestseller in its segment by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Apple's 'citrus' MacBook Neo is listed as a top 5 bestseller in the 'budget laptops' segment by a major market analytics company or industry report by the end of 2026. Valid sources may include Gartner, IDC, or similar reputable market research firms.

This market resolves to Yes if official healthcare reports indicate a 20% or higher increase in the number of UK patients opting to pay for certain healthcare services out of pocket compared to baseline numbers from prior years, by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Britney Spears releases a new music single, either as a solo artist or as a featured artist, on or before December 31, 2026. The release must be available on major music streaming platforms like Spotify or Apple Music.

This market resolves to Yes if any major scientific journal officially announces the adoption of 'peer replication' as a standard practice for validating research by December 31, 2026. Peer replication refers to the verification of scientific studies through independent reproduction of their experiments, to enhance the reliability of published research.

Will the U.S. Congress pass a new tariff policy by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new tariff policy is passed by both houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the President by December 31, 2026. The policy must specify new tariff structures or rates different from those existing as of February 23, 2026.

Will the United States and Iran finalize a new nuclear agreement by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a formal and publicly acknowledged new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran is signed and announced by December 31, 2026. The agreement must be confirmed by reliable sources such as government announcements or major international news outlets. If no such agreement is reached and announced by the specified date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, President Donald Trump proposes a new tariff plan specifically to Congress, following the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his previous global tariffs. The proposal must be publicly documented and verified through credible news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Union officially enacts a new climate adaptation policy, specifically addressing flooding risks, by December 31, 2026. The enactment must be an official policy adopted by the European governing bodies and confirmed through reputable news sources or official EU releases.

This market resolves to Yes if the total value of mergers and acquisitions in the sports industry exceeds €3 billion by the end of 2026, according to a publicly accessible report from a reputable financial analysis firm such as Oaklins or a similar entity.

This market resolves to Yes if the new television adaptation of Charlotte Brontë's 'Jane Eyre,' starring Aimee Lou Wood, premieres on any platform by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from the production company, network, or major entertainment news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the 2026 Lurie Children's Charity Gaming Convention raises more than $500,000 in total donations. Confirmation will be based on official public financial statements or an official announcement by Lurie Children's Hospital by the end of the event.

Will more than five U.S. school districts announce new teacher misconduct policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if six or more U.S. school districts publicly announce and implement new policies specifically addressing teacher misconduct by December 31, 2026. Announcements must be verifiable through official district press releases or reputable news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if Floyd Mayweather participates in a sanctioned professional boxing match that is not an exhibition bout by the end of December 31, 2026. Exhibition matches and any unsanctioned fights will not fulfill the criteria for this market.

Will 15% or more of listed Israeli companies receive a CDP climate score in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if 15% or more of the Israeli companies listed on the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) receive a climate score in 2026. The evaluation will be based on the official CDP report published at the end of 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if any new documents not previously released, implicating Bill Gates in Jeffrey Epstein's criminal activities, are made publicly available by December 31, 2026. The documents should be officially acknowledged or reported by a reputable news source.

Will Jordan's Parliament permanently remove 'Israel' from official discourse by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the Jordanian Parliament has officially announced that it will permanently cease to mention 'Israel' in its official discourse or records, as proposed by MP Abdul Nasser Khasawneh. Verification will be based on official statements or reports from reputable sources confirming the decision.

Will the U.S. government ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. government officially enacts legislation banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes. News reports and official government announcements will be used to resolve this market.

This market resolves to Yes if a published report or announcement verifies that a quantum chemistry calculation has been performed significantly faster than previously recorded times, using a new or updated software package developed before the end of 2026. The resolution will be based on credible sources such as scientific publications, company press releases, or other authoritative announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the cost of semaglutide (brands including Wegovy and Ozempic) is available for purchase at below $10 per month in at least five low-income countries, as reported by a reputable source such as the World Health Organization or a major pharmaceutical company report.

This market resolves to Yes if the SEC publicly announces and implements new regulations specifically targeting cryptocurrencies linked to Trump-affiliated projects by December 31, 2026. Public announcements must come directly from the SEC through official channels. General cryptocurrency regulations that do not specifically mention Trump-linked projects will not qualify for a 'Yes' outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if a major scientific publisher publicly announces the adoption of a new automated system specifically designed to detect fraudulent or fake scientific papers by December 31, 2026. The announcement must come from a recognized scientific publishing house and include details about the system being used.

This market resolves to Yes if Revolut is officially granted a national bank charter in the United States by December 31, 2026, as reported by reputable news sources. A national bank charter would allow Revolut to operate across all 50 states in the US.

This market resolves to Yes if more than 25 significant mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals are reported in the sports industry by December 31, 2026. A significant M&A deal is defined as a transaction that exceeds $100 million in reported value. The determination of the deal count will be based on official announcements and reports from reputable financial news sources by the end date.