Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 5% at any point before or on September 30, 2026. The outcome will be determined using publicly available financial data from credible sources like the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

This market resolves to Yes if a significant public policy change (federal or state law) aimed at protecting bees and addressing factors such as pesticide use or habitat destruction is enacted in the United States by September 30, 2026.

Will SpaceX stock recover to its pre-July 2026 high by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if SpaceX's stock price reaches or exceeds its highest price in July 2026 at any point before the end of the day on September 30, 2026. The resolution will be based on publicly available trading data.

Will Amazon reduce warehouse operational labor hours by at least 10% due to the new efficiency drive by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if official reports or credible news sources confirm that Amazon has achieved a reduction of at least 10% in operational labor hours in its robotics-enabled warehouses due to the new efficiency drive focused on human movement optimization by September 30, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the Strait of Bab el Mandeb continues to be blocked by military forces or other disruptions related to the ongoing conflict beyond September 30, 2026. Verification will be based on credible news reports confirming whether the strait remains closed to commercial shipping.

This market resolves to Yes if official government sources or reliable international news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC) confirm that Péter Magyar's administration has formally introduced a bill to restructure Hungary's governance by replacing the presidency with an alternative system (e.g., parliamentary-only or a ceremonial head of state) on or before September 30, 2026. If no such bill is confirmed by this date, this market resolves to No.

Will the percentage of uninsured patients in U.S. hospitals exceed 25% by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the average percentage of uninsured patients reported by major U.S. hospitals exceeds 25% by the end of Q3 2026, as indicated in their publicly available earnings reports or official statements.

This market resolves to Yes if the NFL formally approves the Khosla family's purchase of the Seattle Seahawks by September 30, 2026. The resolution will rely on an official announcement from the NFL or the Seattle Seahawks confirming the approval. If there is no confirmation by the specified date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a NASA-affiliated source publicly announces a researched, credible scientific explanation for the honeycomb patterns photographed by the Curiosity rover on Mars by September 30, 2026. Hypotheses or speculative statements will not count; the explanation must be supported by research or analysis acknowledged as credible by NASA. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is publicly made by this date.

This market resolves to Yes if the Endocrine Society publicly announces, by September 2026, that hormone therapy is recommended over non-hormonal treatments (including fezolinetant) for menopause based on official guidelines or recommendations. The announcement must clearly state preference and be available on the Endocrine Society's official communication channels.

This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate cut any time before or during Q3 2026. The official announcement must be reported by a credible financial news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, is officially granted a full European banking license by September 30, 2026. Confirmation must be reported by an official regulatory entity, Kraken itself, or credible global news outlets. If no such confirmation is available by the close date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Stanford Medicine or another reputable institution publicly confirms that the AI-discovered molecule, which mimics the effects of Ozempic without the side effects, receives approval to commence clinical trials by September 30, 2026. The resolution will be based on announcements from institutions, regulatory bodies, or credible science news sources.